Why HVAC Prices Are Higher Today & Can They Come Back Down?

As Chattanooga's trusted residential HVAC installer, Scenic Air Solutions has been fielding a lot of questions from homeowners about the skyrocketing costs of HVAC systems in 2025. While several factors contribute to higher prices, one stands out as the primary driver: refrigerant costs. These increases stem directly from new EPA regulations aimed at reducing environmental impact, which have thrown supply and demand completely out of balance. In this post, we'll explore why this is happening, the role of EPA rules, and what it means for you as a homeowner.

The Main Culprit: Surging Refrigerant Prices

Refrigerants are the lifeblood of your HVAC system, enabling the cooling and heating processes that keep your home comfortable. However, in 2025, the cost of these essential chemicals has surged, directly inflating the price of new HVAC installations and repairs.

EPA Regulations Driving the Change

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has implemented strict regulations to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases used in refrigerants. Starting January 1, 2025, new HVAC systems must use refrigerants with a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 700 or lower. This means the widely used R-410A is being phased out in favor of lower-GWP alternatives like R-454B and R-32, classified as A2L refrigerants.

These regulations are part of a broader effort to combat climate change by reducing HFC emissions. While environmentally beneficial, the transition has come with significant economic challenges. Manufacturers must redesign equipment to handle these mildly flammable A2L refrigerants, which require new safety features and compliance testing—adding to production costs.

The EPA has signaled it may reconsider some aspects of these rules due to industry feedback, but as of August 2025, the phase-down is in full swing, and the market disruptions continue.

Supply and Demand Out of Whack

The EPA's phasedown has created a perfect storm for supply and demand imbalances:

1. Shortage of Legacy Refrigerants: As production of high-GWP refrigerants like R-410A ramps down, supplies have dwindled. This scarcity has driven up prices for repairs on existing systems, with costs sometimes doubling.

2. Ramp-Up Challenges for New Refrigerants: The shift to R-454B and similar alternatives has been slowed by global supply chain issues, including reliance on imports and production bottlenecks. Demand has surged as manufacturers and installers rush to comply, but supply hasn't kept pace, leading to nationwide shortages.

3. Increased Demand Amid Heatwaves and Regulations: With hotter summers in Chattanooga and across the U.S., demand for HVAC services is at an all-time high. Coupled with the regulatory deadline, this has worsened shortages, causing delays in installations and price hikes of 20-30% for new systems.

These dynamics have turned the refrigerant market upside down, making it the biggest contributor to overall HVAC price increases in 2025.

Will Prices Come Back Down?

The short answer: Not immediately. While the EPA's potential reconsideration could provide some relief, the transition to lower-GWP refrigerants is likely here to stay. Supply chains may stabilize as production scales up, but ongoing global factors—like geopolitical tensions affecting imports—could prolong issues.

In the long term, as the industry adapts, economies of scale could bring prices down. However, homeowners should prepare for sustained higher costs, especially for repairs involving phased-out refrigerants.

What Chattanooga Homeowners Can Do

Don't let these changes catch you off guard. Here's how to navigate the current landscape:

• Maintain Your Current System: Regular maintenance can extend the life of your R-410A system, avoiding the need for a costly upgrade. Scenic Air Solutions offers affordable tune-up services to keep your unit efficient.

• Consider Upgrading Sooner: If your system is nearing the end of its life, upgrading now to a compliant model could save you from future shortages and price spikes. Look for incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act for energy-efficient installations.

• Explore Alternatives: New A2L systems are more efficient, potentially lowering your energy bills despite higher upfront costs. Our experts can help you choose the right fit.

• Get Professional Advice: Avoid risky workarounds like mixing refrigerants, which can void warranties and pose safety hazards.

Our Duty Is to You

Our duty will always be to serve you in whatever way we can. If you need service, installation, or advice we are just a phone call away. (423) 463-6228